OPINION
Asset Allocation

Fund selection - May 2019

Each month in PWM, nine top European asset allocators reveal how they would spend €100,000 in a fund supermarket for a fairly conservative client with a balanced strategy

Giovanni Becchere 

Head of Multi-Assets, ABN AMRO Investment SolutionsBased in: Paris, France

“Global growth had clearly slowed in the course of 2018, but is now bottoming out and improvement in the global economy is expected for the second part of the year. Our base case for a modest improvement in global trade and industry continues to be valid. Financial conditions are easing, and the minutes of the Fed policymakers meetings confirmed the US central bank’s rate-hiking cycle is over. In China, the authorities have been following a targeted easing policy, and the effects are beginning to seep through to money supply and credit data. In this context we expect equity markets to move sidewise, so we keep our portfolio unchanged with a neutral exposure to equities and an underweight in fixed income, where we have a clear preference for high yielding bonds.”

 

Luca Dal Mas

Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. Based in: London, UK

“The strong risk-taking environment continued during April, supported by a surprisingly resilient US economy. North American equities have recovered 2018 losses and reached all-time highs. After a strong intervention by Chinese monetary authorities earlier in the year, local economic performance has improved in the export and industrial sectors. As a result of the market strength, we decided to take some profit and build more carry in the portfolio by reducing equities and adding more high-yield exposure. On a more strategic basis, we have geographically rebalanced our equity exposure in favour of the US and the UK, reduced our allocation to alternatives and increased exposure to defensive assets.”

Kelly Prior

Investment Manager in the Multi-manager team, BMO Global Asset Management. Based in: London, UK

“Equity markets continued their strong run in April as corporate earnings for the first quarter buoyed spirits amidst more questionable economic data. Europe led the march higher, with the Memnon European fund compounding the returns of its base market to take lead spot in the selection. On the flipside bond markets fared less well losing ground on the whole over the month, though the laggard in the portfolio was the CC Asian Focused equity fund. With heightened political tension again in the forefront of investors mind, alongside the spectacular returns of the year so far, we remain conscious of the scope for a short term pull back from here.”

Silvia Tenconi

Multimanager Investments & Unit LinkedEurizon Capital SGR. Based in: Milan, Italy

“In April, the performance of the portfolio was positive again. After four months of strong performance, we decided to tactically reduce our exposure to risky assets and reshaped the portfolio. We trimmed our European and global funds and added to US equities, reduced and reshuffled our emerging markets funds and reduced Investec Asia Pacific Equity. We invested the proceeds in a cash fund. After such a strong rally the market may take a pause, and we wait for more clarity on the macro front to take on a more bullish view on risky assets.”

Jean-Marie Piriou

Head of quantitative analysis, FundQuest Advisor, BNP Paribas Group. Based in: Paris, France

“Equities rallied sharply in April, supported by central banks dovish policies and favourable economic indicators. Markets continue to price moderate global economic growth combined with moderate core inflation. Now, equities are closer to their historical peaks. The current cautious and diversified allocation is designed to face prevailing market risks. The recent added value of the portfolio is coming from active manager stockpicking, European small caps bets and structural sector tilts such as technologies through Fidelity funds.”

 

Lee Gardhouse 

Chief Investment Officer, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. Based in: Bristol, UK

“After a tough patch of performance European funds have delivered some strong returns recently. We back the team at CRUX and have known the manager, Ricard Pease, since his days at Jupiter Asset Management. Richard has created some quite phenomenal long term returns (45 times your money versus 10 times your money for the European index since he started managing money in 1990) which tells me: one it’s worth sticking with a great manager for the long term and two, you don’t have to hold a small cap tech stock to have a chance of making multiple times your money.”

Bernard Aybran

CIO Multi-management, Invesco. Based in: Paris, France

“The portfolio had a couple of changes during April, on an asset allocation basis, one on the equity side, switching from one sector to another, and the second change on the emerging bond investments. The portfolio is retaining a combination of passive and actively managed investments. While active is undergoing a constant flow of criticism, it remains a better deal for some asset classes. For instance, bond portfolios can end up cheaper in an actively managed version than in an index tracking, because of the high number of illiquid components in bond indices. One size fit all doesn’t fit a balanced portfolio.”

Paul Hookway, 

Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. Based in: London, UK

“We made no changes to our asset allocation in April, though the large cash exposure is a concern. While many of our criteria for increasing equity exposure are in place, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon that call for caution.  Using some of the cash to increase our alternatives exposure may be an option, but identifying a suitable investment will take time to understand all risks we would be taking. Elsewhere we switched the holding of Tokio Marine Japanese Equity Focus into Baillie Gifford Japanese, increasing our exposure to growth in the Japanese market.”

Lea Vaisalo

Chief Portfolio Manager, Nordea investments. Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark

“April saw risky assets grind on towards new all-time-highs with green shoots to be seen in the global economy. Global equities netted almost 4 per cent on the back of continued support from central banks. However, risks uncertainty around the earnings outlook persists. Thus, we keep our neutral recommendation between equities and fixed income. We also keep the overweight in European equities versus an underweight in Japan as well as the defensive stance in the sector strategy (overweight in Healthcare versus underweight in Industrials). Finally, we recommend increasing high-yield bonds to overweight and decreasing government bonds to underweight.”

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