Giovanni Becchere
Head of Multi-Assets, ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. Based in: Paris, France
“There are a number of conflicting signals affecting the investment environment, warranting an objective stance for now. While there is an obvious global economic slowdown underway, we believe it is largely owing to policymaker actions over 2017 and much of 2018. There are clearly headwinds but some of them are temporary and no recession is expected. Other risks, such as those related to Brexit and the US/China trade dispute, while still present, are not expected to escalate. In this context we keep our portfolio unchanged after having trimmed our equity exposure last month.”
Luca Dal Mas
Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. Based in: London, UK
“Latest data show that activity levels in the US are experiencing a modest slowdown. In Europe, we see signs of stabilisation in the service sector while manufacturing activity and peripheral countries are still experiencing negative trends. The coming meeting between US and China should give us more clarity on trade; the current slowdown is hurting the manufacturing and export sector across Asia. Regarding monetary policy, the message from financial markets seems to be that policymaker uncertainty is good as it means interest rate hikes remain on hold, which will be supportive for markets. We have taken partial profit in equities following the rally and allocated the proceeds to high yield. This allows us to increase the carry in the portfolio while tempering our risk profile.”
Kelly Prior
Investment Manager in the Multi-manager team, BMO Global Asset Management. Based in: London, UK
“Markets continued to gain ground in February with the tailwind of supportive talk from central bankers. The hope of a resolution to US/China trade talks was also a factor with economic figures generally fading, but not by enough to change the mood. Sterling has been on a strong run year to date as Brexit fears have subsided – this helped the market, though the Memnon European Fund was the best performer of the selection. The Japanese market was the laggard, though it was the Marian UK Specialist Equity fund that disappointed most in our selection with a flat return in a strong month for assets in general. We remain cautious of volatility from here.”
Silvia Tenconi
Multimanager Investments & Unit Linked, Eurizon Capital SGR. Based in: Milan, Italy
“In February, the performance of the portfolio was positive once again. The only negative contributor was Eastspring Japan Dynamic Fund. The biggest contributors were Fidelity European Dynamic Growth and MFS Global Equity. Equity markets have rallied over the last two months, but we still think the scenario is favorable to risky assets and we are keeping our equity allocation high. We still hold no meaningful duration or credit exposure, but that may change in the coming months, when carry could become a better strategy than equity exposure.”
Jean-Marie Piriou
Head of quantitative analysis, FundQuest Advisor, BNP Paribas Group. Based in: Paris, France
“Compared to January’s strong rebound, February’s market returns were less stellar. The US market rose further, while Europe and UK equities rose in line with other developed markets. Given the risk-on mood in stocks, major government bond markets traded broadly sideways to slightly higher in February, with the dovish central bank stances providing important support. In the current corporate earnings season, results were mixed: US companies posted generally positive surprises, whereas Europe disappointed. With positive surprises overall, Japan falls somewhere in between the US and Europe. We continue trimming the dollar exposure in the portfolio, with a Pimco Diversified Income fund share class changed to a euro-hedged one.”
Lee Gardhouse
Chief Investment Officer, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. Based in: Bristol, UK
“It’s good to have a guiding light to help you out of the dark when there is lots to worry about. For me the guiding light I reach for is Sir John Templeton’s 10 simple steps to investment success. His fifth recommendation is – when any method for selecting stocks becomes popular, then switch to unpopular methods. Too many investors can spoil any share selection method. Fear seems to have driven investors towards companies perceived to have guaranteed growth potential. I don’t believe you have to bet on one outcome but not having too much in this crowded trade seems to be a sensible way forward.”
Bernard Aybran
CIO Multi-management, Invesco. Based in: Paris, France
“One arbitrage has been performed over the month of February on the balanced portfolio, both for asset allocation and fund selection reasons. A Japanese equity ETF has been redeemed to fund the investment in an extra pan-European equity actively-managed fund. While European stocks are an asset class in which stock picking can pay off, investors in funds have to face a major pitfall: the fake diversification. Many successful fund managers outperform on the back of a handful of biases. As rotation occurs, all successful fund managers are at risk of falling into the bottom of rankings at once. The recently added investment provides true diversification.”
Paul Hookway,
Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. Based in: London, UK
“Investor sentiment and equity markets remain in positive territory following the Fed’s dovish stance, stimulus measures in China and the US-China truce. However, the synchronised global slowdown, rapid deceleration in profits growth and high geopolitical risk cause us to maintain a neutral overall position. We remain neutral on gilt and credit amidst the Brexit-related uncertainty.”
Lea Vaisalo
Chief Portfolio Manager, Nordea investments. Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark
“The rally of 2019 continues, with February being another good month for risky assets. Sentiment is clearly having the upper hand with markets shaking off any bad news or data. We believe it is too early to wave the ‘all clear’ sign and therefore stick to our neutral recommendation in equities versus fixed income and a neutral weight throughout the equity regions and sectors. Within defensives, we do see value in overweighting healthcare vs consumer staples. Within fixed income, a more benign monetary environment improves the prospects for bond returns and we therefore lift high yield bonds to a neutral versus reducing government bonds.”
