OPINION
Asset Allocation

Fund selection - July 2019

Each month in PWM, nine top European asset allocators reveal how they would spend €100,000 in a fund supermarket for a fairly conservative client with a balanced strategy

Giovanni Becchere 

Head of Multi-Assets, ABN AMRO Investment SolutionsBased in: Paris, France

“We currently see that most assets are at high levels, which has been partly helped by the trade dispute pause. Moreover, non-US fixed income markets are at extreme levels, as global accommodative central bank policies result in rock-bottom interest rates. Many headwinds are arising for risky assets, not the least of which is Chinese deleveraging. In this context we start adjusting our portfolio versus a more defensive stance. As a first step we add AAF Parnassus Sustainable US Equities, a high quality, concentrated portfolio, managed with a conservative approach, which offers a good diversification when combined with the other strategies we are invested in. We finance this new line by reducing AAF Aristotle US Equities. Another change in the US equity component is the replacement of Amundi US Relative Value – the management of which will be no longer delegated to TCW – with AAF TCW US Equities, still delegated to TCW and managed according to a similar strategy.”

 

Luca Dal Mas

Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. Based in: London, UK

“After the break down in trade negotiations between the US and China in May, the Fed and ECB signalled that they were willing to reduce interest rates to support their respective economies. Markets rallied in unison, reinforced by the tentative rapprochement between the US and China at the G20 meeting. During this period, gold fared particularly well, driven by geopolitical tensions and an expectation of lower real yields.  To better navigate the market environment, we made marginal changes to our portfolio, adjusting exposure to Japan and alternatives.”

Kelly Prior

Investment Manager in the Multi-manager team, BMO Global Asset Management. Based in: London, UK

“June saw equity markets rebound after a tougher month as increased prospects for central bank policy easing, notably from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, boosted risk appetite despite escalating geopolitical tensions and a lack of progress on trade talks until the very end of the month. Asia was the strongest equity market in the month, closely followed by Europe, with Japan the laggard. The Magallanes Value Investors European Equity fund was the best performer of the selection, reflecting a recent turn of fortunes for this style of investing, while the Merian UK Specialist Equity fund lost ground in the month. With markets having come a long way so far this year, and with holiday season and its thin liquidity approaching, we expect more volatility from here.”

Silvia Tenconi

Multimanager Investments & Unit LinkedEurizon Capital SGR. Based in: Milan, Italy

“In June the performance of the portfolio was positive. Pretty much all risky assets rallied, and equities regained what they had lost in May. Best contributors to performance were Vanguard US Opportunities, Wellington US Research and MFS Global Equity. Eurizon Fund - Absolute High Yield contributed to a limited extent. We are selling out of Jupiter European Growth and reinvesting in Allianz Europe Equity Growth, to keep a high-quality growth bias in the European equity space. Albeit June was a strong month, we keep our cautious stance and make no other changes to the portfolio.”

Jean-Marie Piriou

Head of quantitative analysis, FundQuest Advisor, BNP Paribas Group. Based in: Paris, France

“After a significant drawdown during May, global equities rallied strongly in June, supported by an additional stimulus expected from the Fed and the ECB in H2. In this context, the portfolio fully benefits from emerging markets debt in local currencies, US growth equities and IT exposures which outperform other asset classes. We believe this allocation allows us to face this unstable market environment. Thus, we decided to keep our positioning unchanged.”

 

Lee Gardhouse 

Chief Investment Officer, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. Based in: Bristol, UK

“When it comes to investing how long is long-term? Conventional wisdom says at least five years. But a recent study of investors worldwide suggested many lose patience in about half this time. Investing is so much more accessible than it used to be. Yet unlimited access and 24-hour news breeds short termism. The temptation to react can be irresistible. I suspect this affects professional investors as much as it does retail. Don’t fall into this trap. There is no one right way to manage money but if you have a plan then stick to it…for the long term.”

 

Bernard Aybran

CIO Multi-management, Invesco. Based in: Paris, France

“Switches have been performed on the portfolio during June, one in each asset class. The equity change solely relies on an asset allocation rationale. On the fixed income and alternative sides, it is much more about the investment process of the funds’ management teams that are suffering from either too much turnover or an overconfidence bias leading them to get to far away from their reference markets. In the current environment of a high liquidity, shorting entire asset classes is getting more tricky as many prices are getting inflated. Long only looks safer against this backdrop.”

Paul Hookway, 

Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. Based in: London, UK

“No changes were made in June, but there was much debate over the future of H20 MultiAggregate. We decided to retain the holding as it was not affected by the issues facing other funds in the H20 range. A review of the underlying investments did not suggest any problems should we need to redeem our holding. So far this seems to have worked well. The portfolio benefited as the market reacted well to the expectation of rate cuts rather than further rises; a strong bias to growth in the US equity market was a significant positive.”

Lea Vaisalo

Chief Portfolio Manager, Nordea investments. Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark

“Returns in 2018 have been strong with global equities up north of 15 per cent and risky bonds around 10 per cent. Long duration has also been rewarded due to rapidly falling yields. Moving into the summer, we stick to our balanced outlook and hence the neutral allocation between equities and fixed income. Yet, the year has seen big swings in both directions. Therefore, we take a more defensive stance in the sector strategy by raising Consumer Staples at the expense of IT. This is counterbalanced by the slight overweight in high yield versus government bonds.”

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