Benjamin Hamidi
Senior portfolio manager, ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. Based in: Paris, France
“The Omicron variant of Covid-19 has raised concerns, stressing markets in the last days of November. Our central scenario remains unchanged for now, as we wait for more information. This business cycle is fuelled by strong balance sheets of consumers, as well as companies and governments that want to invest more. We remain vigilant regarding developments on the sanatory situation and have decided to stick to the current positioning, which already shows a preference for equities over bonds and a neutral stance for style allocation.”
Luca Dal Mas
Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. Based in: London, UK
“The emergence of a new Covid variant has caused a large correction, and equity markets gave back several weeks’ worth of gains in one day, while safe-haven assets and gold rallied. Inflation pressures continued to rise on the back of sustained robust demand. In the US, the Fed looks more likely to accelerate tapering come January. In Europe, recent economic surveys continue to trend lower from very high mid-2021 readings and we continue to observe severe supply chain delays and labour shortages globally. We have not made changes this month.”
Kelly Prior
Investment Manager in the Multi-manager team, BMO Global Asset Management. Based in: London, UK
“It was difficult to see a bigger influence on the market than the rhetoric from central bankers in November. The euro was under pressure as the European Central Bank took a dovish stance in the face of rising inflation – and then came Omicron. The potential for a stall in the recovery of the global economy pushed all but the US market into negative territory. The Spyglass US Growth fund was the worst performer of the selection. On the flipside, the M&G Global Macro bond fund benefited from the rush to safe assets making positive ground.”
Javier Estrada
Chief Investment Officer, Private Banking, CaixaBank. Based in: Madrid, Spain
“We are leaving our asset allocation unchchanged – half remains invested in equities, with the remainder distributed between fixed income and absolute return strategies. We continue with our defensive positioning in fixed income, trying to minimise the impact of the volatility spike of the past few weeks. Financial bonds and covered bonds remain our main bets. We maintain our exposure to alternatives, as their low correlation helps keep the volatility of the portfolio under control. In equities we maintain our biases, favoring Europe over Asia and the US.”
Silvia Tenconi
Multimanager Investments & Unit Linked, Eurizon Capital SGR. Based in: Milan, Italy
“Equity markets experienced a sharp correction due to the news on the Omicron variant and the hawkish turn of Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve. Portfolio performance was negative this month, even though our high dollar exposure mitigated the drop somewhat. Main contributors were UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF, Allianz Europe Equity Growth and Wellington US Research. Albeit we keep our positive outlook for risky assets, it’s fair to say that uncertainty is rising on Covid, inflation, central banks reactions and China policy.”
Richard Troue
Fund Manager, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. Based in: Bristol, UK
“It was interesting to hear Jerome Powell’s recent comments that the idea of ‘transitory’ inflation, should be abandoned. This might mean the tapering of asset purchase is accelerated and interest rate rises brought forward. The UK might have to increase rates sooner rather than later, given the strong economic data we’ve seen. The uncertainty and noise around this should create opportunities for active managers. It might mean we see a more meaningful resurgence for some value-focused managers, of which there are some in this portfolio.”
Paul Hookway,
Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. Based in: London, UK
“While the US market continued to recover from its October lows, other markets posted negative returns. All were impacted by the arrival of a new Covid-19 variant, which reignited fears of new restrictions and their impact on growth. Given the uncertainty we made few changes, modestly adding to Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity and reducing AXA Framlington UK Fund. Equities, in our opinion, continue to be the most attractive asset class over the longer term, but we will reduce our exposure quickly should tougher restrictions be implemented.”
Antti Saari
Chief Investment Strategist, Nordea investments. Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark
“Although economic growth will slow in 2022, it will be strong enough to drive continued solid growth in earnings. This will contribute to the upturn in equities continuing in 2022 and we maintain our equity overweight. However, growth will not be as strong as in 2021 and interest rates may move higher. Put together, we think equities will have good returns in 2022, but they will be more modest than in 2021. Within equity regions, we lift the US to overweight due to a larger concentration of quality stocks and a relatively strong macro momentum there.”
Marco Pabst
Chief Investment Officer London at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP). Based in: London, UK
“November was a challenging month: world equities lost more than 2 per cent, European and emerging market stocks more than 4 per cent, and Hong Kong dropped by more than 7 per cent. Fixed income was no safe haven, losing 0.4 per cent while commodities shed more than 10 per cent. This was a reflection of a broad-based risk-off move on the back of interest rate and inflationary concerns in combination with tax-loss selling. The portfolio fell around 2 per cent, largely due to losses in emerging markets and growth equities.”
