“We believe that the consolidation of the risky asset markets since mid October will be rather short-lived. The debate of market participants focuses on a premature end of quantitative easing and on weakening macro indicators; in other words both too much and too little economic growth. Neither of them have a very high probability of happening. Our analysis suggests that investors have not fully captured the impressive rally since March and that we are far from seeing irrational exuberance. We increase the allocation to Asian equities and to commodities by 2 per cent each at the expense of European government bonds.”